Epidemic Volatility Index | Pulmonary Clinic

Epidemic Volatility Index | Pulmonary Clinic - University of Thessaly

Version 1.3

Time Period

Range of dates for Respiratory Infections:

Range of dates for COVID-19 cases:

Range of dates for Flu cases:

Model Predictive Value
- Positive Predictive Value
- Negative Predictive Value

Plot Features

References

Kostoulas, P., Meletis, E., Pateras, K. et al. The epidemic volatility index, a novel early warning tool for identifying new waves in an epidemic. Sci Rep 11, 23775 (2021) Read it here Meletis E. et al. EVI R-package: Epidemic Volatility Index as an Early-Warning Tool R-package Info

Figures Explained

Upper left:

Observations (updated every two days), presented on the original scale, with red dots corresponding to dates that, according to EVI, an early warning was issued.

Upper right:

Observations (updated every two days), presented on the logarithmic scale, which facilitates the comparison of the steepness of the epidemic curve between the different waves.

Model Predictive value

Positive predictive value (PPV) for the days that an early warning was issued. Higher color intensity corresponds to PPV closer to the value of 1.

Negative predictive values (NPV) for the days that an early warning was not issued. Higher color intensity corresponds to NPV closer to the value of 1.